World Meteorological Organization

Science 21 Oct 2026

Why El Niño favours wet short rains in Kenya and drought in southern Africa

El Niño is forecast to pass the +2.6°C record for the Niño 3.4 index, the World Meteorological Organization said on 8 October 2026; NOAA material and journal papers explain why that tends to mean more rain in East Africa and less in the south.

A rainstorm sweeps across the plains of the Masai Mara National Reserve, Narok, Kenya (file photo, August 2023).

Science 14 Oct 2026

Strengthening El Niño: how it is measured and what it means for Kenya's short rains

El Niño is established and strengthening and is forecast to peak around December, WMO said on 8 October; Kenya's outlook is for above-average short rains in most counties.

Clouds over the Indian Ocean at sunset, Manda Bay off Lamu, Kenya (file photo, 2023).

Science 8 Oct 2026

WMO forecasts record El Niño sea-temperature anomaly; Greater Horn of Africa likely wetter than normal

On 8 October 2026, the World Meteorological Organization forecast a Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of about +3.7°C for October–December, above the previous record of +2.6°C, and put the likelihood that El Niño lasts through February 2027 at near 100 per cent.