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The Kenya Meteorological Department's heavy rainfall advisory, issued on 24 October, warns that floodwater may reach areas where it has not rained heavily, particularly downstream: flash floods are fed by rain upstream, and steep slopes, saturated soil and paved ground send it to the channels faster.
KMD says its October–December forecast stands although rains have started late in places, and an ICPAC climate scientist says a strong El Niño does not mean extremely heavy rain, the Kenya News Agency reported on 16 October.
Floods can contaminate drinking water and spread cholera, and the standing pools they leave can breed mosquitoes and may raise malaria transmission some weeks later, WHO says; the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts above-average rain in most counties for the October–December short rains.
El Niño is established and strengthening and is forecast to peak around December, WMO said on 8 October; Kenya's outlook is for above-average short rains in most counties.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, a sea-temperature gap across the Indian Ocean, tends to bring heavier October–December rain to Kenya when its western side is warmer, the Kenya Meteorological Department says. A Kenya Meteorological Department official was quoted by the farming news site FarmBizAfrica on 18 September as saying the dipole was still neutral, and the World Meteorological Organization predicted on 8 October that it would peak in October.
