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The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority's bulletin of 30 October 2026 defines above-average rain as over 125% of the long-term mean and puts 'expected' at 76% to 90% probability; ICPAC's August regional outlook gives the likeliest rainfall category 45% to 90% across its four zones.
Kenya's Ministry of Health lists cholera, dengue and Rift Valley fever among the risks of the October–December rains, The Standard reported on 15 September, and WHO links all three to heavy rain; Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Kenya in 1997–98 and 2006–07 came after heavy rain, WHO and a 2009 study say.
El Niño is forecast to pass the +2.6°C record for the Niño 3.4 index, the World Meteorological Organization said on 8 October 2026; NOAA material and journal papers explain why that tends to mean more rain in East Africa and less in the south.
Humidity of about 70 per cent makes heat harder on the body in Kisumu, Kenya, and the county's proposed 2027–2032 heat plan includes cool roofing for existing homes, the Kenya News Agency reported on 19 October 2026.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority's weekly bulletin of 19 October 2026 forecasts rain in parts of Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mombasa, Taita Taveta, Turkana and Nairobi counties for 20–26 October.
KMD says its October–December forecast stands although rains have started late in places, and an ICPAC climate scientist says a strong El Niño does not mean extremely heavy rain, the Kenya News Agency reported on 16 October.
El Niño is established and strengthening and is forecast to peak around December, WMO said on 8 October; Kenya's outlook is for above-average short rains in most counties.
Heavy rain lets more mosquito eggs hatch, and people mostly catch Rift Valley fever from sick livestock, according to the WHO and the US CDC. Most of Kenya is expected to get above-average rain in the October–December short rains, according to a weather outlook dated 30 September, the Kenya News Agency reported in The Star on 5 October.
On 8 October 2026, the World Meteorological Organization forecast a Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of about +3.7°C for October–December, above the previous record of +2.6°C, and put the likelihood that El Niño lasts through February 2027 at near 100 per cent.
Forecasters say El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole should bring more rain to East Africa in October–December; the WHO links heavy rain and flooding to Rift Valley fever and cholera.
On 5 October 2026 Kenya's Interior Ministry said the government had activated the National Contingency Plan for El Niño rains, with evacuation centres and a joint emergency force, Citizen Digital and Xinhua reported.
On 1 October 2026, the Communications Authority of Kenya told Safaricom, Airtel Kenya, Telkom Kenya and Jamii to deliver government emergency texts to all active subscribers, including those who opted out.
